Reducing Member Churn: How a Risk Score Works and When to Call

Where churn shows, where it starts

The owner's date is the package end date: the member didn't renew. The trainer's date is three weeks earlier: she missed two sessions and cancelled the third. The member's date is earlier still: one morning she thought "I could skip today" and nobody noticed.

The software's job is to pull those three dates together.

Signals

Five signals are enough; more is noise:

1. Absence — days since the last check-in. The gym sets its own thresholds (say 7 / 14 / 30 days).
2. No-shows — not turning up to a scheduled session. Different from a cancellation: a cancellation is a decision, a no-show is a break.
3. Remaining credit — a member whose credit is about to run out is thinking "should I renew"; that moment needs to be visible.
4. Daily check-in — energy, motivation, sleep, whatever parameters the gym picks. The member says "I'm not doing well" in their own words.
5. Open findings — a topic spotted in an analysis and left unresolved: "knee pain", "irregular sleep".

The score

Each signal has a weight; the gym changes the weights. Past one threshold the member is "medium" risk, past a higher one "high". Example weights:

| Signal | Points | Note | |---|---|---| | 14+ days absent | 30 | Threshold adjustable | | 2+ no-shows in 30 days | 20 | | | Remaining credit ≤ 2 | 15 | Package ending | | Low check-in average | 20 | Gym's parameters | | Open finding | 15 | From analysis |

The score must show its reasons: "High risk: absent 16 days, 2 no-shows, 1 session left." The trainer knows what to say at a glance.

When, who, what to say

• Medium risk: the trainer, after a session or by message. "Haven't seen you this week — shall we change the program?"
• High risk: the owner or front desk, by phone. With a concrete offer: a new time slot, a different trainer, a package freeze.
• Remaining credit ≤ 2: an automatic notification plus one sentence from the trainer. The renewal offer happens during a session, while the member is still sweating.

Automatic notifications have their place; human calls have theirs. A notification reminds; a person keeps.

In PTLog

The risk score is computed from absence, no-shows, remaining credit, daily check-ins and open findings; the weights are gym settings. The score and its reasons appear on the member card, and members at risk appear on the dashboard. When thresholds are crossed, rules from the notification catalogue ("credit running low", "long absence") reach the owner and trainer, in the gym's own wording.